Para Perceber Putin Ler Vladislav Surkov

Os “especialistas” ocidentais, salvo raras excepções, não têm sabido compreender o presidente Putine. Têm-no “lido” através de uma grelha de leitura demasiado “ocidental”, uma grelha de leitura cujo etnocentrismo inviabiliza qualquer leitura profícua. John Robb e George Friedman e, em português, o Inteligência Económica são alguns dos escassos casos de tentativa de leitura objectiva e desapaixonada do ‘software’ putinista. Agora, neste Verão 2017, Chris Arkenberg passou a fazer-lhes companhia.

O Inteligência Económica escrevia, há mais de 3 anos, a 09 Maio 2014, a propósito da  estratégia de confronto de Putine na Ucrânia, “a guerra de Putine é “não-linear” e é “económica”… Guerra Económica no seu fundamento e Guerra Não-Linear nos métodos e nas formas que assume o seu desenvolvimento. Para perceber a estratégia de Putine na Ucrânia, sua essência, seus modos e seus tempos, há que ler o conselheiro presidencial Vladislav Surkov  e, especialmente, o seu livro de “ficção científica”… Aí se descreve um certo tipo de guerra “não-linear”, suas formas e lógicas e também o que move os seus protagonistas. A “ficção científica” de Surkov (que além de escrever é também um dos homens mais poderosos da política russa da última década e um velho e muito chegado colaborador de Putine) ilumina fabulosamente o lado obscuro da acção russa na Ucrânia. 

"Talvez por também ser especialista de guerras não-lineares (vidé Brave New War), o nosso amigo John Robb ao olhar para a Ucrânia viu duas coisas: “Putin is using open source warfare” e “In the 21st Century, warfare isn’t politics by other means. Warfare is business by other means”.

E o I.E. concluía, então: "Berlim não sabe no que se meteu e Putine vai explorar o erro europeu na Ucrânia para desestabilizar e alterar toda uma ordem nascida depois da implosão soviética e que é (era) desvantajosa para a Rússia".

Agora, a 29 Agosto 2017, Chris Arkenberg, invocando o “Chaos is a ladder” de Lord Petyr Baelish, (num mundo “fundamentally shaped and held together by digital networks” e em que “programmable media is a very potent weapon”) usa o caso ucraniano para procurar explicar “how Russia is shaping a new world of non-linear war and post-modern geopolitics”.

Para Arkenberg, Vladislav Surkov “is a fascinating figure credited with staffing and directing Ukraine’s separatists and architecting the annexation of Crimea. As a former cabinet member and current adviser to President Putin he represents a new generation of postmodern geopolitics (for lack of a better term) that skewers pretty much everything that the 20th century was built upon.

“Wars aren’t fought to win but rather to confuse. There are reasons to back both dissident political parties and ultra-nationalist Nazis. Information is more powerful than weapons. Everything is PR, even science fiction. (Surkov is also a huge fan of Tupac and Allen Ginsberg.)

“Not only is it extremely important to interpret Putin’s Russia within this context, it’s also critical to understand these methods as the new emerging playbook for geopolitics.

“Russia’s method of non-linear warfare — coined by Surkov but sometimes referred to as hybrid warfare, as demonstrated in Russia’s actions against Ukraine — is a different model for projecting state power, one that wields disruption and information warfare more than conventional munitions.

“Surkov’s Russia sees value in oppositional factions and is known to back both dissident political parties and homegrown nationalists — not to specifically reinforce Putin’s rhetoric, but to sow chaos and disharmony amongst the subjects.

“These tactics are being used to destabilize Russia’s perceived adversaries. This is essentially the story of Russia’s interference in Brexit and in the 2016 US presidential election; of the Macedonian fake news farms used to shift American and British voters; and very possibly the current outburst of extremism on both sides of the US political spectrum.

“In Surkov’s model, it would be consistent to agitate and support both the Alt-Right and the American ANTIFA/Black Bloc. The power lies in how these factions can shape and drive media (itself now quite non-linear and distributed), how they whip up emotions and fear, and how click-hungry media can be readily played and subverted towards destabilization and disruption.

“To be sure, Russia doesn’t just back far-right fringe voices in the United States: RT even hosted the U.S. Green Party’s 2016 debate — and went above and beyond any other media outlet in pushing the candidacy of Jill Stein, catering equally to far-left cohorts.”

— Washington Post, August 2017

“This method appears to be instructive for other western rulers in Putin’s orbit, so we should expect this will become the norm for warfare that proceeds much more quickly (and cheaply) across media networks, finance, and information flows than it does armor columns and infantry units.

“And this is an important point: the present chaos of the United States is very likely intentional, led by foreign powers, oligarchs, plutocrats, and seemingly the US President himself.

“The Trump administration has used his inherent bombast to rile up the press over some sensational tweet or remark while reconfiguring the government in the background. In this context, everything Mr. Trump shares with the world should be considered as a deliberate effort to divide or as a smoke screen for something else.

“By hijacking headlines and warping the news cycle through sheer gravitational force, Trump is rupturing the journalism landscape, one land-mine tweet at a time.”

— Vanity Fair, April 2017

“This same Vanity Fair article paints numerous similarities and suggests that Steve Bannon might be studying the Surkov playbook. Note that upon his unceremonious exit from the White House Bannon declared a glorious return to Right Wing media powerhouse, Breitbart. “Now I’m free. I’ve got my hands back on my weapons.”

“Because this is a key insight of non-linear warfare: in a world fundamentally shaped and held together by digital networks, programmable media is a very potent weapon.

“(Breitbart is backed by hedge fund wunderkind billionaire Robert Mercer, known to have an interest in using data analytics to swing voters on social networks.)

“Given the ongoing revelations about Mr. Trump and his party’s Russian affinities and relationships, we should wonder just who’s brand of disruption he represents.

“Perhaps more importantly to the security and stability of our homeland, when we see highly-emotional and highly-politicized chaos sweeping across the West it’s critical that we look behind the division and the anger to spot the puppet masters.”

John Robb e o editor do Inteligência Económica e autor destas linhas já manifestaram o seu aplauso a Chris Arkenberg por esta sua análise.