terça-feira, 13 de novembro de 2018

TOURADAS... POLÍTICAS

Só por curiosidade: está a "Cultura" empenhada em fazer com que Costa perca a maioria absoluta?

É que um ou dois pontos percentuais podem fazer toda a diferença... E os amadores da tauromaquia são muitos e basta que alguns (poucos) deles se "zanguem" com este governo para Costa ter de dizer adeus à maioria absoluta.

Ou como a ministra da Cultura teve o engenho e a arte de colocar Costa numa posição impossível.

Cristo diria "pai, perdoa-lhe que ela não sabe o que faz"... Mas Costa não é Cristo pelo que...

Enfim, são touradas, Senhor, mas touradas políticas!

sexta-feira, 9 de novembro de 2018

Europa: O Exército Fantasma de Macron


Macron aproveitou estes dias que assinalam o fim da primeira Grande Guerra para visitar as zonas do Leste de França que então foram completamente reduzidas a cinzas e cacos pela Alemanha e, nesse terreno, avançar com propostas políticas para o futuro da Europa. O “verdadeiro exército europeu” foi uma delas. Tudo indica que a jogada lhe saiu mal.



Macron parece ter perdido o “dedo”. Aquele a quem tudo saia bem quando era apenas candidato, agora que é presidente, tudo parece sair-lhe mal. E cada vez que sai do seu palácio presidencial para ir ao encontro dos franceses e tentar a “reconciliação” (as suas taxas de popularidade estão “abaixo de Trump” e apenas 20% do eleitorado aceita votar no partido macronista nas “europeias” de Maio próximo...) acumula mais um desaire e levanta polémicas em que acaba por perder mais uns pontos de popularidade. 

Agora, por estas terras onde uma massacrada França acabou por derrotar a Alemanha, com a preciosa ajuda de americanos e ingleses, Macron propôs, no meio de uma ruidosa polémica levantada pelo seu elogio ao traidor Pétain, a constituição de um “verdadeiro exército europeu”, rendendo-se a uma velha ideia de Merkel... 

O rasgado elogio a Pétain (que acabou a sua vida política como o grande colaborador francês de Hitler e foi, depois de 1945, condenado à morte por um tribunal francês, acabando por morrer na prisão) levantou tal celeuma que, praticamente, não se ouviu mais nada do que ele disse. E, claro, contaminou imediatamente a proposta do tal “exército europeu” que só pode ser feito numa aliança com a Alemanha, a que será acrescentado um certo número de pequenos e médios Estados para “compor o ramalhete”. 

A “leitura” emocional da proposta, feita por boa parte dos franceses, foi a de ver Macron a colocar-se como “herdeiro” de Pétain, numa linha de colaboração com a Alemanha. Mas se o quadro de apresentação da proposta foi pessimamente gerido, pior parece ser o timing escolhido para apresentar esta adesão a uma proposta de Merkel, já com algum tempo. 

Merkel está de saída e já perdeu o controlo sobre o seu governo (de coligação com um enfraquecido SPD) e, sobretudo, sobre o seu partido que vai eleger daqui a três semanas um novo líder. Portanto, é uma proposta apresentada a um vazio de interlocutores válidos. E a resposta que veio da imprensa alemã não deve ter agradado nada a Macron. Esta é, portanto, uma proposta para ficar a pairar no ar... Talvez até aos resultados das próximas “europeias”, daqui a seis meses. Sendo, provavelmente, enterrada nessa noite eleitoral. 

Também a fundamentação política da proposta é inexistente, reduzindo-se a um equívoco (a Limes chama-lhe, ver texto abaixo, uma “contradição em termos”...). E, entretanto (como a Limes também sublinha), a Inglaterra, que estando de saída da Europa não integrará esse “verdadeiro exército europeu”, investe em força na sua Defesa Nacional e reforça a sua posição de principal potência militar da Europa.

Vendo bem, Macron parece ter perdido não só o dedo mas também a mão...
 



MACRON E L’ESERCITO EUROPEO

Il presidente francese Emmanuel Macron ha rilanciato l’idea di un “
vero esercito europeo“, di un continente che “deve difendersi da solo, senza dipendere esclusivamente dagli Stati Uniti e in modo più sovrano”.
Sviluppare in Europa una comune cultura strategica è un
 chiodo fisso dell’inquilino dell’Eliseo.

 

Negli ultimi tempi, l’Ue ha lanciato una serie di programmi volti a mettere in comune le capacità dei vari paesi membri per sviluppare armamenti, migliorare la logistica e altre questioni di contorno. Manca però, in quanto tema più sensibile, la costruzione di vere e proprie Forze armate comuni, argomento sul quale sin dagli anni Cinquanta l’integrazione continentale si è sempre arenata.

 

Diversi Stati membri non gradiscono l’iniziativa di Macron. Non solo perché storicamente neutrali (Austria, Svezia e Finlandia non fanno parte della Nato, per esempio), ma pure perché vi scorgono la resurrezione di una strategia tipicamente francese, mirata a usare l’Ue, e in particolare il tandem con la Germania, come moltiplicatore di potenza. A far fare agli altri ciò che Parigi non riesce a fare da sola.


Non aiuta la retorica del presidente il ricorso al concetto di “sovranità europea”, un’autentica
contraddizione in termini poiché presupporrebbe che un leader della Francia invochi la volontaria rinuncia ai propri poteri in favore di una maggiore integrazione del continente, che ormai è ancora meno di un miraggio, di fronte alla crisi tedesca.

LONDRES E NATO

Nato e Regno Unito sono fra i motivi per cui difficilmente assisteremo alla nascita dell’esercito europeo vagheggiato da Macron. Lo dimostrano alcuni recenti e interessanti annunci del governo britannico.

Londra ha di recente
aumentato di un miliardo di sterline il bilancio della Difesa, da dedicare al programma per i sommergibili nucleari Dreadnought e allo sviluppo di capacità di guerra antisottomarina e cibernetiche (ambito nel quale i britannici sono leader europei).

Non si tratta affatto di un episodio isolato, perché il
piano di acquisizione di armamenti dell’esecutivo May prevede una spesa di 186 miliardi di sterline in dieci anni. Il funzionario responsabile di questa branca della Difesa, Stuart Andrew, ha giustificato il tutto con la volontà di mantenere un ruolo centrale nella Nato, anche dopo l’uscita dall’Ue.

Benché pronunciato negli Stati Uniti, tradendo l’evidente premura di persuadere Washington a non dismettere l’Alleanza atlantica, quest’ultimo commento è un utile promemoria. Serve a ricordare come il Regno Unito, per non perdere troppa rilevanza globale dopo il Brexit,
lotterà duramente per conservare la Nato quale fondamentale erogatore di sicurezza del Vecchio continente. Con buona pace dei piani francesi.
http://www.limesonline.com/notizie-mondo-oggi-7-novembre-elezioni-usa-midterm-vittoria-democratici-conseguenze-macron-esercito-europeo/109515


quinta-feira, 8 de novembro de 2018

Efeitos Perversos e Perigos da Inteligência Artificial - Estudos


“26 chercheurs provenant de 14 institutions d'horizons variés ont publié la semaine dernière un texte commun d'une centaine de pages dans lequel ils entendent mettre en garde contre une potentielle «utilisation malveillante de l'intelligence artificielle». Parmi les intervenants, on retrouve des membres de plusieurs universités, notamment celle d'Oxford, de l'alliance OpenAI pour la recherche ouverte sur l'IA, du Centre pour l'étude des risques existentiels (CSER) et de l'Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) pour ne citer qu'eux.”

O download do relatório pode ser efectuado aqui:



terça-feira, 6 de novembro de 2018

Benedictus Nostri... Bento da Inteligência e da Liberdade

Tivessemos nós, aqui no Intelnomics, de escolher um Papa e só este, aqui apresentado num quadro de Andy Warhol, com uns 'toques' subjectivos mas apropriados ao objectivo, poderia ser o nosso Papa. Um Papa português a quem a Europa e o mundo devem o culto da inteligência e da Liberdade: Bento de Espinosa.


O Populismo Não Cai do Céu

A equipa Intelnomics tem seguido a emergência e desenvolvimento do chamado “populismo”, com grande atenção, desde há vários anos (desde muito antes de o termo ter sido cunhado e do seu fulgurante aparecimento na imprensa mainstream com a vitória da estratégia de Steve Bannon). Desde os primeiros sinais fracos deste fortíssimo fenómeno que ele entrou no nosso radar. 

Não partilhamos, portanto, dos vulgares fenómenos, tanto à esquerda como à direita, de surpresa e indignação “moral” face à vaga populista. Antes, consideramos que importa perceber, ter “a inteligência das coisas” e, claro, antecipar. 

Aliás, bastava ter sabido ler alguns factos, como o de serem empréstimos dos bancos da Rússia de Putine que, há coisa de 10 anos, financiaram as campanhas eleitorais de Marine Le Pen, para perceber que a coisa era séria e vinha aí  grossa tempestade. 

Bastava ter sabido ler as gravíssimas insuficiências políticas e morais das elites reinantes na União Europeia e nos USA, no pós colapso financeiro de 2008, para antecipar a sua substituição, em eleições, por quem soubesse ir ao encontro da revolta de eleitorados desiludidos e indignados. 

Bastava ter sabido ler o alargamento do fosso na distribuição da riqueza criada e o insustentável desenvolvimento das desigualdades salariais, com a imparável perda de poder de compra da classe média e dos assalariados (que eles tentaram compensar com recurso ao crédito gerando dívidas colossais...). 

Bastava ter sabido ler isso e muitas outras coisas para perceber que nada ia continuar como dantes... Mas, tanto à esquerda como à direita, as elites reinantes (e cúmplices dos financistas que montaram a tragédia de 2008...) tinham outras prioridades. Portanto... Preparem-se para mais, muito mais. 

O nosso amigo e velho colaborador da equipa Intelnomics Christian Harbulot, talvez cansado de ouvir certas “rangaines”, disse-o de forma clara e abrupta:

“Le populisme n'est pas une démarche hors sol

Christian Harbulot | Directeur chez E.G.E.

Le populisme n'est pas une démarche hors sol. Il est souvent le révélateur d'erreurs stratégiques commises par des gouvernements sur des themes vitaux pour les pays concernés. Il est aussi le révélateur de contradictions dangereuses dans la manière dont évoluent les relations internationales. Il suffit de relire l'histoire contemporaine.”

Muito difícil será dizê-lo melhor e mais claro. Bravo, Christian.

quinta-feira, 1 de novembro de 2018

Americanos levam rede chinesa de espionagem a tribunal

As actividades da espionagem chinesa nos países ocidentais estão, depois de anos de intrusões, 'entrismos' e pilhagens desenfreadas, a sofrer sérios reveses neste final de 2018. Um caso exemplar é este agora comunicado oficialmente pelo Department of Justice que, explicitamente, destaca a colaboração entre americanos e franceses (à bon entendeur...).



Chinese Intelligence Officers and Their Recruited Hackers and Insiders Conspired to Steal Sensitive Commercial Aviation and Technological Data for Years


DoJ | Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Chinese intelligence officers and those working under their direction, which included hackers and co-opted company insiders, conducted or otherwise enabled repeated intrusions into private companies' computer systems in the United States and abroad for over five years. The conspirators' ultimate goal was to steal, among other data, intellectual property and confidential business information, including information related to a turbofan engine used in commercial airliners.

The charged intelligence officers, Zha Rong and Chai Meng, and other co-conspirators, worked for the Jiangsu Province Ministry of State Security ("JSSD"), headquartered in Nanjing,
which is a provincial foreign intelligence arm of the People's Republic of China's Ministry of State Security ("MSS"). The MSS, and by extension the JSSD, is primarily responsible for domestic counter-intelligence, non-military foreign intelligence, and aspects of political and domestic security.

From at least January 2010 to May 2015, JSSD intelligence officers and their team of hackers, including Zhang Zhang-Gui, Liu Chunliang, Gao Hong Kun, Zhuang Xiaowei, and Ma Zhiqi, focused on the theft of technology underlying a turbofan engine used in U.S. and European commercial airliners.

This engine was being developed through a partnership between a French aerospace manufacturer with an office in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, China, and a company based in the United States. Members of the conspiracy, assisted and enabled by JSSD-recruited insiders Gu Gen and Tian Xi, hacked the French aerospace manufacturer. The hackers also conducted intrusions into other companies that manufactured parts for the turbofan jet engine, including aerospace companies based in Arizona, Massachusetts and Oregon.

At the time of the intrusions, a Chinese state-owned aerospace company was working to develop a comparable engine for use in commercial aircraft manufactured in China and elsewhere.

Defendant Zhang Zhang-Gui is also charged, along with Chinese national Li Xiao, in a separate hacking conspiracy, which asserts that Zhang Zhang-Gui and Li Xiao leveraged the JSSD-directed conspiracy's intrusions, including the hack of a San Diego-based technology company, for their own criminal ends.

"For the third time since only September, the National Security Division, with its US Attorney partners, has brought charges against Chinese intelligence officers from the JSSD and those working at their direction and control for stealing American intellectual property," said John C. Demers, Assistant Attorney General for National Security. "This is just the beginning. Together with our federal partners, we will redouble our efforts to safeguard America's ingenuity and investment."

"State-sponsored hacking is a direct threat to our national security. This action is yet another example of criminal efforts by the MSS to facilitate the theft of private data for China's commercial gain," said U.S. Attorney Adam Braverman. "The concerted effort to steal, rather than simply purchase, commercially available products should offend every company that invests talent, energy, and shareholder money into the development of products."

"The threat posed by Chinese government-sponsored hacking activity is real and relentless," said John Brown, FBI Special Agent in Charge of the San Diego Field Office. "Today, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, with the assistance of our private sector, international and U.S. government partners, is sending a strong message to the Chinese government and other foreign governments involved in hacking activities. We are working together to vigorously investigate and hold hackers accountable regardless of their attempts to hide their illicit activities and identities."

On October 10, the Department of Justice announced that a JSSD intelligence officer was extradited to the Southern District of Ohio, on charges that he attempted to steal trade secrets related to jet aircraft engines, and in September, in the Northern District of Illinois, a grand jury indicted a U.S. Army recruit who is accused of working as an agent of a JSSD intelligence officer, without notification to the Attorney General.

As the indictment in the Southern District of California describes in detail, China's JSSD intelligence officers and hackers working at their direction masterminded a series of intrusions in order to facilitate intrusions and steal non-public commercial and other data. The hackers used a range of techniques, including spear phishing, sowing multiple different strains of malware into company computer systems, using the victim companies' own websites as "watering holes" to compromise website visitors' computers, and domain hijacking through the compromise of domain registrars.

The first alleged hack began no later January 8, 2010, when members of the conspiracy infiltrated Capstone Turbine, a Los-Angeles-based gas turbine manufacturer, in order to steal data and use the Capstone Turbine website as a "watering hole."

China's intelligence service also sought, repeatedly, to hack into a San Diego-based technology company from at least August 7, 2012 through January 15, 2014, in order to similarly steal commercial information and use its website as a "watering hole."

Chinese actors used not only hacking methods to conduct computer intrusions and steal commercial information, they also coopted victim company employees. From at least November 2013 through February 2014, two Chinese nationals working at the direction of the JSSD, Tian Xi and Gu Gen, were employed in the French aerospace company's Suzhou office. On January 25, 2014, after receiving malware from an identified JSSD officer acting as his handler, Tian infected one of the French company's computers with malware at the JSSD officer's direction.

One month later, on February 26, 2014, Gu, the French company's head of Information Technology and Security in Suzhou, warned the conspirators when foreign law enforcement notified the company of the existence of malware on company systems. That same day, leveraging that tip-off, conspirators Chai Meng and Liu Chunliang tried to minimize JSSD's exposure by causing the deletion of the domain linking the malware to an account controlled by members of the conspiracy.

The group's hacking attempts continued through at least May of 2015, when an Oregon-based company, which, like many of the other targeted companies, built parts for the turbofan jet engine used in commercial airliners, identified and removed the conspiracy's malware from its computer systems.

Count Two of the indictment charges a separate conspiracy to hack computers in which Zhang Zhang-Gui, a defendant charged in Count One, supplied his co-defendant and friend, Li Xiao, with variants of the malware that had been developed and deployed by hackers working at the direction of the JSSD on the hack into Capstone Turbine. Using malware supplied by Zhang, as well as other malware, Li launched repeated intrusions that targeted a San Diego-based computer technology company for more than a year and a half. These intrusions caused thousands of dollars of damage to protected computers.

Count Three of the indictment charges Zhang Zhang-Gui with the substantive offense of computer hacking a San Diego technology company, which was one of the targets of the conspiracies alleged in Counts One and Two.

The charges contained in the indictment are merely accusations, and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

The FBI, led by the San Diego Field Office, conducted the investigation that resulted in charges announced today. This case is being prosecuted by Alexandra Foster and Sabrina Fève of the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of California and Jason McCullough of the National Security Division's Counterintelligence and Export Control Section.

The Criminal Division's Office of International Affairs also provided assistance in this matter, and the Department appreciates the cooperation and assistance provided by France's General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI) and the Cybercrime Section of the Paris Prosecutor's Office during the investigation of this matter.

Case Number: 13CR3132-H

Attachment(s): Download Indictment

quarta-feira, 31 de outubro de 2018

China, Belt and Road... Corruption, Debt and Backlash


“Why Democracies Are Turning Against Belt and Road?”, pergunta a Foreign Affairs que responde: “Corruption, Debt, and Backlash”...


Xi Jiping sai bastante mal na fotografia...

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an enormous international investment project touted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, was supposed to establish Chinese soft power. Since late 2013, Beijing has poured nearly $700 billion worth of Chinese money into more than sixty countries (according to research by RWR Advisory), much of it in the form of large-scale infrastructure projects and loans to governments that would otherwise struggle to pay for them. The idea was to draw these countries closer to Beijing while boosting Chinese soft power abroad. Far from expanding Chinese soft power, the BRI appears to be achieving the opposite.


terça-feira, 30 de outubro de 2018

Guerra economica. Guerra della informazione

Um ebook (ao módico preço de 4,99 €) do nosso amigo Giuseppe Gagliano, presidente do Cestudec (Center for Strategic Studies Carlo De Cristoforis), essencial para apreender algumas “banalidades de base” sobre a realidade do actual mundo híper-competitivo e cuja leitura se recomenda fortemente. 

Descrizione

Nonostante le previsioni di molta letteratura politologica lo Stato resta il protagonista dell’arena globale, anche in campo economico. Nasce da qui la necessità di dotarlo degli strumenti necessari per affrontare la competizione internazionale per l’edificazione di un reale sistema-paese.
Gli Stati Uniti, in questo campo, sono stati “maestri”. Consapevoli del fatto che gli avversari geoeconomici sono sovente alleati geopolitici, hanno trasformato la “tecnica di attacco” in “forza di influenza”.

Nulla di tutto questo sarebbe possibile senza il coinvolgimento dell’intelligence economica e senza l’utilizzo dell’informazione come strumento di dominio. Quest’ultima, seppure non esaurisca le opzioni della guerra economica, è uno strumento imprescindibile per la sua realizzazione.
In Europa pochi hanno avuto il merito di studiare il ruolo delle intelligence nella guerra per le risorse e le tecnologie e in quella dell’informazione. L’esempio analizzato nel saggio è quello dell’École de Guerre Économique (EGE), nata in Francia nel 1997 e che vede in Christian Harbulot il suo più autorevole e noto esponente.

In un’ampia sezione eXtra, a corredo del saggio, si illustrano, tra l’altro, le modalità con le quali Greenpeace ha messo in atto la guerra della informazione ai danni delle multinazionali petrolifere.


“Giuseppe Gagliano si è laureato in Filosofia presso l’Università di Milano. Attualmente è Presidente del Cestudec (Center for Strategic Studies Carlo De Cristoforis). 


Ha collaborato con la “Maritime Magazine”, “Notizie Geopolitiche”, “Rivista aereonautica”, la Italian Society of Military History, il Centro de Estudos em Geopolítica e Relações Internacionais (Brasile), il Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement e con le riviste “Modern Diplomacy”, ”Intellector”, “Securite Globale”, ”Cahiers de la sécurité et de la justice”.

È inoltre membro del Advisory Board delle riviste “International Journal of Science” (Serbia) e “Socrates Journal” (India), “Geopolitica.ro” (Romania).

Ha pubblicato:

Guerra psicologica, disinformazione e movimenti sociali, Aracne, 2012; Nicolas Moinet, Intelligence economica (a cura di Gagliano Giuseppe), Fuoco, 2012;

Guerra economica e intelligence, Fuoco, 2013; La Geoeconomia nel pensiero strategico contemporaneo, Fuoco, 2015;

Guerre et intelligence économique dans la pensée de Christian Harbulot, présentation Nicolas Moinet, Va Press, 2016;

Desinformation, desobeissance civile et guerre cognitive, Va Press, 2017; Sfide geoeconomiche, Fuoco, 2017;

Cestudec-Scuola di guerra economica, Thibault Kerlizin, Greenpeace – Une ONG à double-fond(s)?, Va Press, 2018.

Con goWare ha pubblicato nel 2018 Guerra economica. Stato e impresa nei nuovi scenari internazionali,

Simone Weil. Scritti sulla situazione in Germania e le origini del totalitarismo

e Riscoprire la Scuola Austriaca di economia (con Guglielmo Piombini).”

http://www.goware-apps.com/guerra-economica-guerra-dellinformazione-giuseppe-gagliano/?fbclid=IwAR0tBrRehKZSBFZEtgGJcOsaIcT7N_D7HCD8akeiZM4AJAJysfaQ9EzyLYE

Os Cinco Brasis

Como Vítor Cunha Rego, o português que melhor conhecia o Brasil, gostava de explicar, não há um Brasil, há cinco. Em Portugal, conhece-se pouco (muito pouco) do Brasil e estuda-se ainda menos... 
O mapa que publicamos (da italiana Limes) é uma introdução a essa realidade que VCR tão bem conhecia.


domingo, 28 de outubro de 2018

Guerra economica: così i servizi segreti cinesi spiano le imprese europee

Quadros do Estado, dirigentes empresariais e universitários são alvos designados das operações dos espiões chineses na União Europeia. Em Portugal também assim acontece mas, curiosamente (ou talvez não...) é um outro grupo que tem sido (e está a ser...) o principal alvo português dos agentes chineses: os jornalistas... Enfim, especificidades portuguesas. O nosso amigo Giuseppe Gagliano, no jornal “Il Primato Nazionale”, retoma hoje o problema da guerra da espionagem chinesa contra as empresas (e os Estados...) da União Europeia. Gagliano retoma as informações (como o Intelnomics já ontem fizera) constantes da nota dos “serviços” franceses sobre o “massiccio spionaggio industriale e tecnologico attuato dai servizi segreti cinesi”. Destaca que “più di 4.000 dirigenti francesi sono stati presi di mira dai servizi segreti cinesi” em operações coordenadas pelo “Ministero della Sicurezza dello Stato cinese (MSE), che conta su 200.000 agenti”. E ainda que a inteligência francesa identificou “500 falsi account identificati opererebbero su Linkedin, collegati ad una quindicina di società di facciata in gran parte basate a Hong Kong e Shanghai.” As “secretas” francesas identificam também “altre pratiche messe in campo dai servizi segreti cinesi e, fra queste, l’infiltrazione di agenti operativi nei centri di ricerca universitari servendosi dei programmi di scambio o l’installazione di apparecchiature spionistiche”. A internet é, simultaneamente, um vector de cavalos de tróia e de portas escancaradas e, assim, potencia a ofensiva chinesa até patamares de ameaça directa à soberania do Estado... Gagliano destaca que “le proporzioni sono tali che le autorità di Parigi ritengono che l’intelligence cinese minacci la sovranità dello stato e mette in pericolo la sicurezza economica francese servendosi della intrinseca volatilità dei dati presenti su internet”.



Roma, 28 ott – In una nota scritta congiuntamente dalla Direzione Generale della Sicurezza interna (DGSI) e dalla Direzione generale della sicurezza esterna (DGSE), i servizi di intelligence francesi lanciano l’allarme per il massiccio spionaggio industriale e tecnologico attuato dai servizi segreti cinesi, sottolineando l’assenza di una ampia e articolata cultura di intelligence nel contesto pubblico e privato.

In uno scenario come quello attuale di libero scambio a livello economico ed informativo, anche attraverso i social network, il compito dell’intelligence diventa sempre più complesso ed arduo. 


Attraverso la piattaforma LinkedIn e altri social network come Viadeo, più di 4.000 dirigenti francesi sono stati presi di mira dai servizi segreti cinesi coordinati dal Ministero della sicurezza dello Stato cinese (MSE), che conta su 200.000 agenti. 

L’accesso a dati sensibili strategici si concentra principalmente sulle aree della salute, dell’informatica, della energia nucleare, delle nanotecnologie e delle telecomunicazioni.

Secondo le indagini congiunte dell’intelligence francese, 500 falsi account identificati opererebbero su LinkedIn, collegati ad una quindicina di società di facciata in gran parte basate a Hong Kong e Shanghai. 

Attraverso uno studio minuzioso relativo all’identificazione e alla valutazione dell’importanza dei profili occidentali su LinkedIn, i servizi segreti cinesi attuano una tecnica definita “trawling” che consiste nel raccogliere la quantità massima di informazioni con un minimo di investimento anche se contengono incongruenze di natura informativa. 

Una volta individuati i dirigenti di imprese di una certa rilevanza, questi vengono invitati a seminari retribuiti in Cina e poi ricattati dai servizi cinesi o attraverso foto compromettenti o dimostrando l’esistenza di transazioni finanziarie illegali (naturalmente create ad hoc dai servizi cinesi). 

A questo punto, i dirigenti francesi sono quindi obbligati a inviare all’intelligence cinese circostanziate note informative relative alle società nelle quali operano.

Esistono naturalmente altre pratiche messe in campo dai servizi segreti cinesi e, fra queste, l’infiltrazione di agenti operativi nei centri di ricerca universitari servendosi dei programmi di scambio o l’installazione di apparecchiature spionistiche.

Le proporzioni sono tali che le autorità di Parigi ritengono che l’intelligence cinese minacci la sovranità dello stato e mette in pericolo la sicurezza economica francese servendosi della intrinseca volatilità dei dati presenti su internet.

Anche per tutelare la sicurezza nazionale del nostro Paese non solo sarebbe necessario sottolineare l’esistenza di una oggettiva guerra economica fra nazioni ma porre in essere iniziative di natura didattica rivolte al mondo della impresa.

Come quella promossa dalla Agenzia Nazionale per la sicurezza dei sistemi informatici francese,che ha messo in campo il progetto MOOC- Massive Open Online Course – finalizzato a dare indicazioni precise ai dirigenti su come evitare di essere oggetto di spionaggio anticipando le mosse dell’intelligence avversaria per evitare di doverla poi subire passivamente.

Giuseppe Gagliano


https://www.ilprimatonazionale.it/economia/guerra-economica-cosi-i-servizi-segreti-cinesi-spiano-le-imprese-europee-95502/?fbclid=IwAR1h0j4Bk3U27sUKV67hozIvTcmRDCaQI00IDRvuRLY7z8NHE2Z6SoKpAlo

Como a China Pilha os Dados Críticos dos Estados e Empresas Europeias

Como a espionagem chinesa faz pesca à linha através do Linkedin e outras redes sociais e como trata em seguida os que mordem o anzol para os “virar” e pôr a render... Um importante alerta do nosso amigo Franck DeCloquement (26 Out. 2018, 13:53

De notre ami et ancien collègue (il y a bien des années de cela, dans une autre galaxie professionnelle), Jean Chichizola du Figaro 👍 =>   "JULIE, 37 ans, cadre contractuelle dans une direction du ministère de l’Économie, est contactée via Linkedin par Shawn. Ce jeune cadre asiatique est très bien de sa personne. Son profil dit qu’il travaille pour le compte de Global Views Strategic Consulting, un cabinet de chasseurs de têtes. Couverte d’éloges et appâtée par une alléchante offre de collaboration, Julie accepte une première rencontre en Chine avec son énigmatique correspondant, avant de le suivre ensuite dans une destination touristique paradisiaque d’Asie du Sud-Est pour «travailler». Là, après un premier entretien de deux heures, ils passent le reste des quatre jours à faire de la plongée et à visiter de petites îles perdues. Loin de la grisaille de Bercy, Julie est tombée sous emprise.."


=> Cet exemple que l’on pourrait imaginer tout droit sorti d’une amorce de scénario à la John le Carré est bien réel. Pourtant ce n'est que la partie émergée d’une entreprise d’espionnage hors norme menée par la Chine en France.

La Mission? Piller les données sensibles au cœur même de lÉtat et des fleurons de notre patrimoine économique.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2274270722646234&set=a.549893665083957&type=3&theater



Espionnage chinois: la note d'alerte des services secrets français

Par Christophe Cornevin Jean Chichizola | Le Figaro | 22/10/2018

EXCLUSIF - Les services de renseignement français signalent une «opération d'envergure» menée ces dernières années par les espions chinois sur les réseaux sociaux professionnels.


Soucieux de sortir la population d'une «période de naïveté coupable», les services français de renseignement ont décidé de frapper très fort. «Pendant trop longtemps, la culture du renseignement n'a pas été prise au sérieux par nos concitoyens comme elle devrait l'être, explique un haut responsable. Contrairement à ce que l'on peut observer chez nos voisins anglais notamment, elle est même totalement insuffisante tant au niveau de nos cadres supérieurs que de nos élites politiques. Depuis juin 2017, nous avons changé de paradigme. Nous allons répondre aux agressions, coup pour coup, quelles qu'en soient les conséquences.»

» LIRE AUSSI - État, entreprises: comment la Chine espionne la France


Dans une note d'alerte tout à fait inédite, que Le Figaro s'est procurée, la Direction générale de la Sécurité Intérieure (DGSI) et la Direction générale de la sécurité extérieure (DGSE) révèlent avoir «mis en évidence une opération d'envergure des ....”

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2018/10/22/01003-20181022ARTFIG00305-espionnage-chinois-la-note-d-alerte-des-services-secrets.php

sexta-feira, 26 de outubro de 2018

domingo, 21 de outubro de 2018

Europe’s Civil War - Esta Europa vista da Esquerda Inglesa


Europe’s Civil War

The great schism that could pull the EU apart

 Europe is once again divided – this time between liberalism’s defenders in the west and north, and states in the south and east who increasingly reject it.

By Timothy Less | New Statesman |17 October 2018 


A contest is under way for the future of Europe and the battle lines have been drawn. From the east, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is spearheading a popular revolt against the EU’s ancien régime. And in the west, France’s Emmanuel Macron is leading its defence. Ahead of next year’s European Parliament elections, the Hungarian has thrown down the gauntlet to his rival, who has responded in kind. “If they want to see me as their main opponent, they’re right,” Macron said in August.

This is an ideological war about the true nature of Europe. In one camp are the defenders of the old liberal order, who see themselves as the bearers of Europe’s Enlightenment legacy – its commitment to democracy, the rule of law, liberty and rights, rational enquiry, cosmopolitanism, the open society and economic freedom. They pride themselves in having successfully faced down the forces of prejudice, superstition and nationalist fervour, presiding over an unprecedented period of stability, freedom and prosperity since the end of the Second World War.

In the other camp are the challengers to the liberal order who claim to embody the “true Europe” – its Christian inheritance, its mosaic of national identities and the traditional family structure on which the continent’s society is built. From their perspective, liberals are destroying Europe with their promotion of alternative lifestyles, their attack on the nation state, and their suppression of liberty by an authoritarian bureaucracy and a stifling culture of political correctness.

Crucially, this ideological fault line is also geographical, dividing the EU’s core in northern and western Europe from its periphery in the south and the east. This division emerged at the start of the decade when Hungary, reeling from the impact of the financial crisis, elected the charismatic Orbán, leader of Fidesz, for his second stint as prime minister on a manifesto to correct the defects in an imported liberalism and restore stability.

In a flurry of activity, he brought strategic sectors of the Hungarian economy, such as banking, energy, utilities and food production, back under national control. He created new laws to protect and promote the family. And Orbán has repeatedly changed the constitution, enshrining the pre-eminence of the Hungarian nation, while effectively barring immigration from outside the EU.

Subsequently, almost every state in eastern Europe has adopted a form of Orbánism, which fits better with its social needs and traditions than the alien doctrine of liberalism, imposed by outsiders in the 1990s.

Notionally, the governments in Slovakia, and Romania are left-wing, Poland is pursuing a 21st-century form of Catholic-infused Christian democracy and the prime minister of the Czech Republic is a maverick businessman. But the differences are secondary to what they have in common. Across the region, a discredited form of liberalism is in rapid decline and a form of popular national conservatism based on family, faith and flag is the dominant mode of government. From here, the new politics is spreading to the adjacent states of Austria and Italy, on the back of a refugee and migrant crisis.

This situation contrasts starkly with the state of politics in the north and west of Europe – France, Germany, Benelux, Ireland and Scandinavia – where liberal parties have successfully held on to power. Unsurprisingly, liberalism has greater support in the region where it was incubated and whose needs it was designed to meet.

This is not to suggest that everyone in “core” Europe endorses the liberal status quo. On the contrary, its demos is divided between defenders and challengers, just as the south and east are also internally divided. But the numbers matter. In the rich and urbanised north and west of Europe, adherents of liberalism still constitute a majority; in the poorer and more rural south and east, rejectionists do, and this has consequences at election time. Where once Europeans were separated by faith, empire and superpower rivalry, they are now split by ideology. Europe is once again divided in half.

****

Belatedly, the battleground for this conflict has become the European Union, the continent’s central authority, which sets the ground rules for its members and determines what constitutes the true Europe. This was not always the case. Prior to the financial crisis, eastern and southern Europe were happy to abide by the liberal precepts on which the EU was founded – its promotion of open trade and investment, the free movement of peoples across borders and the dilution of national sovereignty. Although liberalism was an untested novelty in the old eastern bloc, its promise of good government and prosperity was eminently preferable to a Soviet-imposed socialism.

Even after the onset of the financial crisis and the start of the Orbánist backlash, the EU was marginal to the drama. Aside from some grumbling by MEPs about democratic backsliding, the EU largely ignored the political transformation taking place in countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.

Not only was the bloc distracted by the need to deal with the eurozone crisis, but its officials were slow to realise that countries that had long been paragons of compliance were now in open rebellion – even more so since Orbán and his supporters consistently expressed their support for European integration. For as long as the EU left Hungary and others alone, they were content to do likewise, and a facade of unity was maintained.

The turning point came mid-decade following the EU’s tortuous stand-off with Greece; the migrant crisis and the subsequent breakdown of the Schengen arrangements; the election of the Law and Justice party in Poland in 2015; and the Brexit vote in 2016. Many at the heart of the European project acknowledged the risk of the EU collapsing. However, with the election of Macron, and a return to economic growth to buoy their spirits, the EU’s establishment belatedly embarked on an effort to reverse the decline.

On the one hand, the attempt at revival involved a bold new phase of liberal integration that would make a success of the EU’s existing projects, especially the eurozone. France and Germany initiated a European military capability (PESCO) and the Commission took steps to demonstrate the EU’s relevance by cracking down on tax avoidance by American multinationals. On the other, revival meant disciplining those states that had openly defied the EU’s ideological foundations.

The European establishment’s weapon of choice has been the EU’s “Article 7”, a procedure which, taken to its conclusion, can see a malfeasant state suspended from the Council of Ministers, the key decision-making body. Last year, the European Commission triggered this procedure against Poland for what it described as a “serious breach” of the rule of law after moves by the Polish government to change the composition and functioning of its judiciary.

In September this year, the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to trigger the same procedure against Hungary for what it called a “systemic threat” to the EU’s fundamental principles. The two states dispute the charges against them as politically motivated. The EU would deny that. But in the debate that preceded the vote against Hungary, the veteran federalist Guy Verhofstadt hinted at the real motives at work by accusing Hungary’s leader of being “the seed of discord that will ultimately destroy our European project”.

In the background to this, threats have been made to link the huge subsidies the EU sends to the east each year to adherence to the “rule of law”. The French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recently said that France “does not want to finance a populist Europe”.

At the start of October, in the same week that its government held a referendum directed against gay marriage, the European parliament threatened to act against Romania for a series of reforms to its judiciary. In his assessment to the Council of Ministers, Frans Timmermans, vice president of the European Commission, threatened to be “brutal”.

And after months of insults and provocations, Italy too is finally being brought to heel as the Commission threatens for the first time to reject a member state’s spending plans, for breaching the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact.

Unsurprisingly, pressure from Brussels has galvanised the rebels who refuse to submit to the EU’s authority – not least because their own electorates would punish them severely for it.
Instead, Orbán has been marshalling his forces. After shoring up his position at home in an election in April that delivered him a parliamentary supermajority, he is building a regional coalition opposed to the EU’s liberal prescriptions.

His alliance extends from Warsaw to Rome, via the Christian Social Union in Munich, and is backed by powerful external allies such as Russia and Turkey.

****

The next showdown will be the European elections in May 2019, in which anti-liberal parties are expected to do well, changing the complexion of the European Parliament. This could be decisive in shaping the new Commission which, Orbán hopes, will be decidedly less communautaire  in its approach to its work, allowing a revival of inter-governmentalism and ideological diversity at the domestic level. As Orbán rallies his allies, he has predicted “only two winners” in the election – himself and Macron – and that he, Orbán, will achieve the ultimate victory.

That is mere fighting talk, because nothing is certain. On the contrary, as the conflict between Europe’s two halves escalates, its future becomes ever more opaque. Perhaps the rejectionists will do well in the elections and Orbán’s rebel army will make a push to transform the EU into a looser union of independent nation states, bound together by trade and a common desire for security.

But the immediate problem they will face is the continued presence of liberal government in western Europe, and especially France and Germany, which will veto any kind of systemic transformation of the EU away from liberalism. Beyond that, there is the problem of the eurozone and, specifically, the question of how to adapt an institution designed as an irreversible stepping stone to a political union.

There are two possibilities, neither viable. One is for its members to continue using the currency while simultaneously reasserting national control over fiscal (and monetary) policy, as Italy is now doing. However, it is hard to see how the eurozone could survive the stresses and strains, and the corresponding loss of market confidence, that this implies. The other is a negotiated dismantling of the monetary union, allowing an orderly pathway out for those states whose national interest compels them to leave. But that is no panacea. The exiting states could well find themselves in precarious economic circumstances, with capital flight, a weakling currency, an inherited pile of euro-denominated debt and sky-high premiums for borrowing. When confronted by this reality in 2015, Greece recoiled.


Hungarys’s Viktor Orbán describes next years European elections as a battle with Macron

****

If the rebels fail to take the citadel, then perhaps the European establishment can suppress their insurrection by resolving the underlying problems that have fuelled the challenge to the system. This would require the securing of Europe’s frontiers and establishing Macron’s desired fiscal union, which is really the only viable remedy for the shaky monetary union. In the course of time, southern and eastern Europe would return liberal governments to power, restoring the order that prevailed until last decade.

But how likely is this? Amid a continued threat from migration, discontent with neoliberal economics and ham-fisted attempts by the EU’s establishment to impose its authority, rejectionist politics is spreading across the region. Crucially, it is also gaining ground in western Europe, where mainstream parties are having to adapt their programmes in order to stay in power, most recently in Sweden.

At the same time, after a decade of indecision, there is little prospect of Europeans agreeing the kinds of measures that might make a success of the eurozone – even less so as solidarity wanes. So, a return to business as usual is unlikely.

If neither establishment nor rejectionist governments can establish their vision of Europe, then the EU faces the prospect of stalemate and then retreat. This is, in fact, its present reality as the EU struggles to reach agreement in any major area of policy – the latest failure being the rejection of a strengthened external border force.

Meanwhile, rebel national governments are reasserting their sovereignty in areas of policy vital to their national interest – unilaterally curbing immigration, ignoring spending limits, restoring relations with Russia, and so on.

If the EU proceeds in this direction, it will eventually come to resemble a kind of United Nations for Europe, in which its member states discuss their concerns and cooperate when it suits them, while the real politics takes place at the national level. An optimist might argue that would not be so bad as the enduring idea of pan-European unity adapted itself to the conditions of the 2020s.

The problem, however, is that a loosening of the EU by neglect – effectively a victory for the rejectionists – is intolerable to the EU’s establishment.
****

So there is another possibility: that the EU splits. The basic problem the European establishment has with its south-eastern periphery is the opposite of the problem it has had with the UK – that wayward states such as Hungary and Italy refuse to leave and insist on changing the system from within. This leaves two options. Either the core must secede and establish an EU 2.0, comprised of states that endorse its liberal precepts. Or it must expel the EU’s most unruly members, starting with Hungary.

In the context of recent events, this would be less a change of policy than a continuation of an existing process. By triggering Article 7, the EU’s institutions have already set Poland and Hungary on a glide-path to departure, and Luxembourg explicitly called for Hungary’s expulsion in September 2016. With other wayward states such as Italy, Romania, Malta and Cyprus similarly out of favour, the outcome would be a reversion to the original concept of the European project – a union comprised of a handful of like-minded, geographically proximate states, at the core of which are France and Germany.

A Great Schism may seem far-fetched from the vantage point of 2018. But the political calculus will be very different come the start of the next decade when the EU confronts the next recession, which is inevitable. With the eurozone unreformed, interest rates already at zero and its weakest members sitting on a pile of new debt, the next crisis is likely to hit hard.

What will happen when troublesome elements such as Italy and Greece once again find themselves in financial straits? Will the EU’s core members dig deep into their pockets, as they did before?

That seems improbable. More likely is that the creditor states cut the Mediterranean loose and concentrate on shoring up their own defences. In the process, the EU will squeeze out recalcitrant non-eurozone members such as Hungary and Poland, by whatever means necessary. Already, the former head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has proposed a compulsory referendum in every member state which offers just two choices – accept a political union or quit the EU.

That would, of course, have massive geopolitical implications for the old periphery. Hungary and Italy would seek to balance internationally between the new reduced EU, Russia and China. Poland would focus its attention on the US and UK. 

New alliances would emerge in the region to replace the EU, encompassing not just central Europe but the Balkans, Belarus and Ukraine. And issues suppressed by EU membership would return to the fore, starting with Hungary’s unresolved grievance over the status of its regional diaspora.

As for the rump EU, it may overcome the challenge emanating from the periphery by expelling its members, but its problems would not be over. It would still be faced with the shortcomings of liberalism – the threat to identities, the economic insecurity, and so on – that fuelled the populist uprising from the east. The core EU may defeat the external enemy by banishing it from the realm. But the challenge from within may prove even greater.

BY TIMOTHY LESS | 06 JUNE 2018

Europe is facing a new, potentially violent crisis as territorial and ethnic tensions reignite in the troubled south-east of the continent.


Timothy Less is leading the “New Intermarium” research project at the University of Cambridge


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Só por curiosidade: está a "Cultura" empenhada em fazer com que Costa perca a maioria absoluta? É que um ou dois pontos percentuai...