Russia: Atrás de Prigozhin, " A Ordem da República"

A golpada de Prigozhin teve apoios de uma rede militar clandestina. "A Ordem da República", um grupo de oficiais que se opõem ao regime de Putin e à "operação especial" na Ucrânia, "deu uma mãozinha" às manobras Wagner e à sua "cavalgada" de Rostow até perto de Moscovo. Mas, sobretudo, esta rede clandestina desencadeou várias manobras de guerra de informação e ainda algumas "disfunções" que muito terão baralhado os serviços de informação de Putin. Os nossos amigos do "Intelligence on Line" revelaram a existência desta "convergência oportunística" depois de terem confirmado os seus "detalhes".

Terá Putin, numa manipulação clássica (cujas técnicas ele domina muito bem) usado o seu "amigo" Prigozhin para levar a "Ordem da República" a pôr a cabeça de fora...?  

As próximas semanas vão ser agitadas... e o que acontecer mostrará alguma (apenas alguma...) da realidade desta implacável guerra de sombras no seio do continentalista império russo que está longe de ter terminado.

Golpe na Rússia...?

Ponto (possível) da situação militar interna na Rússia, ao início da madrugada de hoje, sábado, pelos nossos amigos da Geopolitical Futures.

Geopolitical Futures: Update on Russia’s Internal Conflict

Conflicting reports don’t shed much light on the supposed coup underway.

By Geopolitical Futures | June 23, 2023 | 01 : 55

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s private military firm known as the Wagner Group, has accused the Russian military of attacking his forces and said he would answer with attacks of his own. Conflicting reports on social media suggest Russian military vehicles are on the streets of major Russian cities in anticipation of what Russia’s attorney general has called an “attempt to organize an armed rebellion.” 

Some reports claim that a column of Wagner personnel has passed through the Novoshakhtinsk checkpoint. Another says that at the Voloshino checkpoint there is a column of Wagner forces some 80 kilometers long. It is believed that military police and border guards are not interfering with Wagner’s forces. In the face of what may or may not be a coup attempt, the government’s primary objectives are to increase security in Moscow proper. 

We cannot confirm at the moment what exactly is going on, but we know that this may be an inflection point in the conflict."

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/tag/russia/

Berlim Revela a Sua Primeira "Estratégia de Segurança Nacional" Pós-II Guerra

A Alemanha revelou há dias o seu primeiro documento (pós II Guerra) de Estratégia de Segurança Nacional, aqui apresentado e subtilmente comentado por Ben Schreer, Executive Director Europe, do International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Germany's first National Security Strategy

"On 14 June, the German government released the country’s first-ever National Security Strategy (NSS).

"The NSS is fundamentally a compromise between a three-party coalition government. Consequently, some long-overdue reforms that would have enabled more coherent German national-security strategy-making fell victim to political bargaining during the 15-month drafting process led by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Alliance 90/The Greens). Most prominently, a national-security council mirroring that of other countries and meant to coordinate better and faster responses to complex security challenges did not survive disagreements between the chancellor and foreign minister over where to house such a body and who would control it. This outcome risks frustrating the NSS’s key stated purpose of ‘integrated security’. In addition, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (Free Democratic Party) insisted on making the NSS a cost-neutral exercise, which is likely to lead to disputes between ministries going forward.

Political compromise tends to produce vague and intentionally imprecise language, and this is a characteristic of the NSS. It states that in broad terms the world’s external-security environment is ‘marked by rising systemic rivalry’ and, more specifically, that ‘today’s Russia is for now the most significant threat to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area’. The modifiers ‘today’ and ‘for now’, however, imply that Berlin perceives Russia as only a temporary threat. This idea sits uneasily with most Eastern and Northern European allies, whose strategic trust Germany seeks to regain and who see Russia as a long-term threat.

On China, the NSS reflects a compromise between Scholz’s conciliatory stance and Baerbock’s more hawkish approach. It names China as a ‘partner, competitor and systemic rival’ and notes that competition has ‘increased in the past years’. It further identifies China’s more assertive behaviour regionally and internationally, but also clings to the notion that ‘China remains a partner without whom many global challenges and crises cannot be resolved’. The reason for such optimism is unclear, since Beijing has weaponised climate-change issues and remains unwilling to sever its strategic ties with Russia.

Moreover, the NSS fails to mention Germany’s key interest in Taiwan Strait stability, a wasted opportunity to demonstrate to the US and Indo-Pacific partners (and China) that Berlin is seriously concerned about the possibility of a conflict that would have devastating consequences for Germany and Europe. There is also no reference to growing Sino-Russian ties, which are fast becoming a security concern for many European and Indo-Pacific countries alike. ..... "

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/06/germanys-first-ever-national-security-strategy/

O Campeão Europeu ou... a Geopolítica da Bola

O xeque Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan ganhou a "Champions"... Nasser Al-Ghanim Khelaïfi perdeu-a (mais uma vez). 

Este campeonato joga-se entre o Abu Dhabi e o Qatar e é esta a realidade do futebol europeu: ser campo de um jogo muito mais poderoso, entre duas "equipas" que travam uma luta de vida ou de morte. 

Luta que, neste século XXI, estenderam a vários tabuleiros no continente europeu, das finanças ao futebol passando pela política. 

Alguns desses tabuleiros são de máxima discrição, alguns são apenas obscuros e outros estão à vista de quem queira ver, como é o caso do futebol.

Quem disse que este futebol é um desporto...? Quem disse não sabia nem da missa a metade! 

Uma coisa, porém, fica ainda mais clara: a geopolítica manda em tudo, mesmo numa Champions League. 

Resultado (por ora): Abu Dhabi 1  -  Qatar 0

Lições da Guerra na Ucrânia

Estes longos meses de guerra na Ucrânia (na Europa...) trazem algo de novo, no tabuleiro da estratégia ou no campo de batalha? Alain Bauer considera que sim e aponta o que mudou e as urgências que tais mudanças implicam, já.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGjL2w6a2Dw