A próxima década vai ser de grande agitações, com "a massive economic disruption on the horizon". Os nossos anos vinte vão ser de "disruptions" em cascata e serão o momento de definição dos parâmetros do novo modelo global e do seu centro geopolítico e, logo, geoeconómico... Anos em que “Demographics, automation, and inequality could dramatically reshape our world in the 2020s and beyond”. É preciso preparar a nossa elite política (e também ou talvez sobretudo a económica) para esse tempo de decisões estratégicas que vão moldar as décadas seguintes. Momento em que o que estará em jogo, em cima da mesa, será a nossa sobrevivência como comunidade... É melhor antecipar o jogo (aqui "antecipar" quer dizer fazer o "forecast" da coisa...)" e desde já começar a prepará-lo.
Inteligência, resiliência e estratégia são as palavras-chave dos próximos anos, para quem queira viver.
A new report from Bain & Company looks at the future of the labor market and see a massive economic disruption on the horizon. Karen Harris, Austin Kimson, and Andrew Schwedel believe automation alone could erase 20% to 25% of jobs, hitting low and middle income workers the hardest, perpetuating a cycle that could lead to the return of 0% interest rates. Read on for guidance on how to adjust to a global business environment that now only “veers between extremes.”
Book: MEGACHANGE - Economic Disruption, Political Upheaval, and Social Strife in the 21st Century
ResponderEliminarBy Darrell M. West October 18, 2016
Big, unexpected changes are here to stay
Slow, incremental change has become a relic of the past. Today’s shifts come fast and big. They are what Darrell West calls megachanges, in which dramatic disruptions in trends and policies occur on a regular basis.
Domestically, we can see megachange at work in the new attitudes and policies toward same-sex marriage, health care, smoking, and even the widespread legalization of marijuana use. Globally, we have seen the extraordinary rise and then collapse of the Arab Spring, the emergence of religious zealotry, the growing influence of non-state actors, the spread of ISIS-fomented terrorism, the rise of new economic and political powers in Asia, and the fracturing of once-stable international alliances.
Long-held assumptions have been shattered, and the proliferation of unexpected events is confounding experts in the United States and around the globe. Many of the social and political institutions that used to anchor domestic and international politics have grown weak or are in need to dramatic reform.
What to do? West says that we should alter our expectations about the speed and magnitude of political and social change. We also need to recognize that many of our current governing processes are geared to slow deliberation and promote incremental change, not large-scale transformation. With megachange becoming the new normal, our domestic and global institutions must develop the ability to tackle the massive economic, political, and social shifts that we face.
https://www.brookings.edu/book/megachange-economic-disruption-political-upheaval-and-social-strife-in-the-21st-century/