John Robb: Delaying Chinese Global Dominance

Uma análise de rara lucidez sobre o recente Congresso do imperial PC Chinês. Do nosso amigo John Robb, autor do Global Guerrillas e de Brave New War. Análise que aqui se regista, para memória futura. Thanks, John.

Delaying Chinese Global Dominance Posted: 27 Oct 2017 02:48 PM PDT The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is over.  It was a seminal event.  It... ...firmly consolidated political power in the hands of a single man, Xi (no successor was named). ...clearly informed the world that China was now a global superpower (and the US was its only rival). ...would promote a world based on 'capitalism with Chinese characteristics' (a capitalism in a Leninist cage) in opposition to Western Democracy. In short, China publicly announced that it is now in a 'cold economic war' with the US for the future of the world.  In fact, China was so confident of its eventual victory, it clearly articulated the centerpiece of their effort to accomplish it:  one belt one road     It's an investment of $8 trillion (to start!) to build a global road, rail and maritime system that connects Asia, Africa, and South America (60 countries in total) to China.   Transportation is a natural monopoly.  Xi is trying to build a transportation monopoly on a global scale.  It isn't only backed by Xi personally, it is also now enshrined in the Communist party constitution (!).  In other words, it's going to get done. By the time this round of investment is completed, a majority of the global economy will be in economic thrall to China.  Subsequent iterations ensure that the US will become a second tier economic power.  All within 20 years. Unfortunately, due to a self-inflicted wound (Trump is merely a symptom), the US couldn't be in a worse position to counter this effort.   Decades of blind adherence to economic and social neoliberalism has shattered US cohesion along all three vectors: moral, mental, and physical.   The result has been intractable economic stagnation, social turmoil, and political chaos.  Even worse is on the horizon: the US is careening towards identity authoritarianism.  In time, the US may be able to regain stability.  Regardless, it's unlikely the US will find a way through this crisis fast enough to mount a successful conventional counter to China's challenge.  So, what is to be done under the assumption the US will eventually recover, but not soon enough for conventional efforts? Delaying China One solution is to mount a rearguard action -- a method of delaying an advancing enemy when your forces are in retreat.  An action that buys time for the US to regroup and regain cohesion.  The US faced a similar situation re; the Soviet Union in '79 after the invasion of Afghanistan.  In that case, support for Afghan insurgents kept the Soviets occupied while the US recovered (Carter, inflation, Iran, etc.).  In this case, the rearguard action would be the disruption of China's plans for one belt one road.  This could be done inexpensively and with very little manpower or visibility.  How?  Create groups that operate like global guerrillas.  Small groups that operate independently w/o oversight.  More letters of marque than special operations.     In the short term, disrupt the Chinese construction effort.  Double and treble construction costs by delaying timeliness and forcing increased security efforts.   Drive up the costs of financing.  Drive away subcontractors.   Next, force the Chinese to physically and logically protect the entire system, from roads to ports to trains, from disruption.   As my analysis of Lawrence of Arabia shows, it's more damaging to partially disrupt a system than to completely break it.  Keep up the pressure -- with the ability of systems disruption to generate a million to one return on investment, this is sustainable.   Sincerely, John Robb Writing on a crisp fall day in New England PS:  Doesn't the US risk more from disruption than China?  No. The US doesn't have a choice.  If it doesn't act while this system is being built (when it is the most vulnerable to disruption), the US will cede global dominance to China forever.  China is creating the equivalent of "Standard Oil stranglehold" on the global economy and once established it will likely become too big/too entrenched to roll back through global guerrillas.