Alerta de Shah Gilani, consultor de investimentos e uma das mais bem informadas e "smarts" fontes do "Intelnomics".
Jim Rickards, o ex-homem da CIA para a "guerra económica", havia já há várias semanas feito um subtil mas bem impressivo aviso no mesmo sentido.
Agora, Shah Gilani, avança a mesma mensagem mas já sem subtilezas e com todas as letras: "inflation is coming"... Apertem os cintos e verifiquem os paraquedas!
Entrevista recente a Jim Rickards
ResponderEliminar“Silverstein: So that would be a really big crisis, a disaster scenario?
Rickards: What I was covering in my book "The Road to Ruin," is let's say it does happen sometime soon, what's the response function? Because again, central banks... In 1998, Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund. In 2008, the Central Banks bailed out Wall Street, in 2018 who's going to bail out the Central Banks?
Silverstein: What are you looking at? You look at a lot of predictive analysis, what factor do you think is the most worrisome right now that points to a crisis?
Rickards: The scale of the system. I used complexity theory. I pretty much discard all the standard models, they don't reflect reality. Just a classic general equilibrium models, efficient markets, smooth continuous price movements, the Phillips curve, Black-Scholes — I'm good friends with Myron Scholes, and he's taught me a lot, but there's a lot of flaws in that model. None of those things reflect reality.
What does reflect reality very well is complexity theory, which comes from physics. It's had success in a lot of fields, climatology, seismology, and many other dynamic systems. It has not been used in finance except by very few people. I didn't invent it, but I'm the one pioneering the idea of bringing it to capital markets. When you look at capital markets through the lens of complexity theory, you ask yourself "what's the scale of the system?" Scale is just a fancy word for size. What measures are you using? If you look at total debt, gross national value of derivatives, the concentration of assets in the five largest banks, what percentage of the total assets of the five largest banks are interconnected? What you see is a very densely connected, fragile system that could collapse at any moment.
Silverstein: Is that why we were so surprised by the 2008 crisis, because of the complexity and leverage that was built in to it?
Rickards: That's a great question. I was going around lecturing in 2005-2006, saying this crisis was coming up. I didn't say it was going to be mortgages on August 8, 2007, but we're seeing this happen again. I had a front row seat in the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management; I was general counsel, I negotiated the bailout. I was in the room with the Treasury and the Fed and the heads of all the 14 major banks, a bunch of lawyers, and we came this close to shutting every market in the world. It didn't happen and we got $4 billion cash, we propped up the balance sheet, Wall Street took over. The thing was unwound over the course of a year, but it was a really close run thing.
Having seen that, as we kind of tip-toed up to 2007, I could see all the same problems happening again. Then when it happened it was really not a surprise. In September 2007, I told them what to do. This was a year before Lehman. It had started — now, remember the crisis had started in August 2007. In September, Secretary Paulson came up with this "super SIV." He was going to roll up all these special purpose vehicles from all the banks, then that was abandoned. I went down to the Treasury and said "look, this crisis is going to get worse, here's what you need to do: call all the hedge funds, tell them to give you all their positions in machine readable form, put it into a matrix, hire IBM Global Services." I was completely ignored. You could really see this coming. I see it coming again. I'm not saying tomorrow, maybe not even next year, but sooner than later it should come as no surprise.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rickards-interview-global-financial-crisis-gold-fed-2017-11