A equipa Geopolitical Futures de George Friedman acaba de divulgar o seu "forecast" dos próximos 20 anos, "the road to 2040", um muito bem sustentado trabalho, numa perspectiva geopolítica, sobre o grande processo de mudança global em curso. As "novidades" não são simpáticas e apresentam-se como sendo, desde já, muito exigentes...
Alguns tópicos:
Sobre o aspecto principal da mudança em curso, "the dominant theme we see playing out over the course of the next 19 years is increasing disarray in Europe and Asia".
Sobre a evolução da Europa: "the European Union as an institution will collapse or redefine itself as a more modest trade zone encompassing a smaller part of the continent. The current free trade structure is unsustainable because its members, particularly Germany, have grown overly dependent on exports. This dependency makes these economies extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in demand outside of their own borders. Germany is the most vulnerable country and will experience economic decline due to inevitable fluctuations in the export market. Consequently, by 2040, Germany will be a second-tier power in Europe."
Sobre a relação transatlântica, "the U.S. will support its allies with supplies, training and some air power, rather than directly and forcibly engaging."
A finalizar, "despite the growing unsteadiness in Eurasia, we also expect to see three regional powers emerge: Japan, Turkey and Poland. These countries will be outliers in an otherwise fragmented Eastern Hemisphere."
Todo o "sumário" deste "forecast" na foto abaixo. 
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