What leaked documents reveal about Ukraine’s counteroffensive
Classified war documents on U.S. and NATO efforts to support Ukraine’s military ahead of a planned spring counteroffensive were posted to social media this week. The leaked documents, at least one of which is labeled “Top Secret,” reportedly include maps of Ukraine as well as information on troop and battalion strengths, anticipated weapons deliveries, and casualty numbers. The material, which is dated March 1, does not include detailed battle plans but does provide a glimpse into the Ukrainian military’s status as of five weeks ago. The documents, which seem to have appeared on the internet as early as March 1 and 2, were later posted to Twitter and Telegram.
Classified war documents on U.S. and NATO efforts to support Ukraine’s military ahead of a planned spring counteroffensive were posted to social media this week. The leaked documents, at least one of which is labeled “Top Secret,” reportedly include maps of Ukraine as well as information on troop and battalion strengths, anticipated weapons deliveries, and casualty numbers. The material, which is dated March 1, does not include detailed battle plans but does provide a glimpse into the Ukrainian military’s status as of five weeks ago. The documents, which seem to have appeared on the internet as early as March 1 and 2, were later posted to Twitter and Telegram.
Later on Friday, another trove of classified information was published on 4chan, an online anonymous message board. More than 100 pages were posted, which included sensitive U.S. briefing slides on topics like China, Indo-Pacific military issues, the Middle East, and terrorism, according to the New York Times. One slide was labeled “Secret/No Forn,” meaning not to be shared with foreign governments. A senior intelligence official who spoke to the Times called this leak a “nightmare for the Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, which is composed of the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.
As of now, it’s unclear who published any of the classified information and why, though the U.S. Defense Department has launched an investigation. Pentagon officials have acknowledged that they are legitimate Defense Department documents; however, some of the content seems to have been altered to inflate Ukraine’s casualty numbers. U.S. defense officials indicate this may be part of a push to further Moscow’s disinformation efforts; pro-Russian online accounts have actively publicized the documents since their release. “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told the Times.
Although neither sets of released papers seem to provide specific details such as when and where the anticipated Ukrainian military offensive will occur, they do provide important intelligence about the timing of weapons and troop deliveries as well as the progress of troop buildups—both things that could potentially provide Moscow with a tactical advantage. Some military analysts predict the spring strike will focus on Russian-occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine, but according to Ukrainian national security chief Oleksiy Danilov, no more than five people know when and where the spring strike will take place.
As for best strategies, retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis thinks Ukraine’s military should “drive to the Black Sea and split the Russians” on two flanks, coming up behind them. Speaking on FP Live on Thursday, the former NATO supreme allied commander said such an effort would “complicate their ability to manage logistics.” For more from Stavridis, including why he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to use nuclear weapons and why Washington should go all-in on supporting Kyiv, watch, read, or listen to the interview here.
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