Nova Estratégia de Defesa americana: A China é o inimigo principal

O Pentágono acaba de divulgar a novíssima Estratégia de Defesa americana.

O documento (cuja leitura é imprescindível) estabelece quatro objectivos prioritários: 

Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by the PRC; 

  

Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, Allies, and partners; 

  

Deterring aggression, while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary - prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific region, then the Russia challenge in Europe, and; 

  

Building a resilient Joint Force and defense ecosystem. 

O documento é consultável aqui: https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF

Mudanças Radicais na Concepção e na Estrutura do Poder Militar

São perspectivas novas e inéditas que George Friedman vê abrirem-se nas concepções e estruturas da potência militar. Uma análise que é indispensável conhecer e uma evolução que é imprescindível seguir. Uma "leitura" que vem ao encontro dos interesses nacionais portugueses e lhe abre novos horizontes, numa perspectiva há muito defendida pela equipa "intelNomics", a do "dual use".

The Military Power in the 21st Century

"The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical changes happening in the world today.  

Throughout the 20th century, military power was the province of large nations. With advances in martial technology, war no longer requires a massive population, nor does it require massive consumption of raw material.

 

This has significant geopolitical consequences. We can see this evolution most clearly in Israel.  

Founded first on French and then American weapons, the Israeli military now has homegrown capabilities that it (ironically) can sell to others.  

They are designed around the principle that putting troops at risk is a possible but rare event, while using unmanned force as the dominant element of strategy.  

Israel has come the furthest with this strategy, but it can be seen also in places such as the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.  

As a result, each wields international political power far beyond what might have been expected from it during the prior era.  

New technologies enable small powers to engage much larger powers.  

The core of the force is the technologists who maintain and upgrade systems – a fraction of the manpower needed by the old definition of great powers." 

George Friedman, June 21, 2022

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-evolution-of-great-powers/ 

Ucrânia: A posição da China face à ameaça nuclear russa

A escassos dias do congresso do partido-estado, Pequim toma posição (dúbia, como é norma chinesa) sobre a cada vez mais operacional (e não apenas política) ameaça nuclear russa na Ucrânia. Recorde-se que a doutrina nuclear russa, ao contrário da americana, há muito que colocou as armas nucleares tácticas abaixo da linha vermelha, equiparando-as, em estatuto, a armas convencionais... Sobre o posicionamento de Pequim face a esta ameaça de Moscovo, o Intelligence on Line noticiava há minutos:

Beijing intervenes again in response to Moscow's nuclear threat

Discussions within the Russian high command indicate that Moscow is preparing for an operational, rather than political, use of the nuclear threat in Ukraine. Behind the scenes in Beijing, there is support for the Kremlin's aggressive rhetoric, but not for the execution plans.  [...]

https://www.intelligenceonline.com/government-intelligence/2022/10/03/beijing-intervenes-again-in-response-to-moscow-s-nuclear-threat,109829978-art